FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|NFL MVP surprise? Tyreek Hill could pull unique feat – but don't count on him outracing QBs

Who’s your MVP?FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center

Maybe this is the year the NFL Most Valuable Player award finally lands in the hands again of a non-quarterback.

After all, Tyreek Hill went on blast before the games began and predicted that he would break the NFL’s single-season record for receiving yards. And look at him now. As the NFL officially crosses the midseason marker, the electric Miami Dolphins receiver is on pace to make good on his word.

If Hill, sizzling in the NFL’s most exciting (and highest scoring) offense, pulls off his goal of topping the 1,964 yards that former Detroit Lions receiver Calvin Johnson put up in 2012, what better way to make the MVP argument?

It would take something extraordinary.

NFL STATS CENTRAL: The latest NFL scores, schedules, odds, stats and more.

Or maybe not. When Johnson, aka “Megatron,” set his record, it still wasn’t enough to garner MVP honors – in part because of an extraordinary achievement by another superstar: Adrian Peterson.

A 2,097-yard rushing season propelled Peterson to his MVP trophy, and it was the last time a non-quarterback won the award. Selected by a panel of 50 voters polled by The Associated Press, it’s been 10 MVP quarterbacks in a row and 15 QBs of the last 16 MVPs.

So, as impressive as Hill’s 119.6 yards a game are, the odds that “The Cheetah” – or for that matter, Philadelphia Eagles star A.J. Brown, averaging 111.7 yards per game – will become the first wide receiver to win MVP honors are as long as they’ve always been.

No, the great Jerry Rice, for all of his fingerprints on the NFL record book, never won a season MVP award to go with his Super Bowl 23 MVP award.

In considering Hill or Brown, remember that Johnson’s record was set during a 16-game season – when he averaged 122.8 yards per game.

Yet receivers can feel only so slighted when considering other positions. Since the award was established in 1957 and won by the legendary Jim Brown when it was called the Most Outstanding Player Award, no defensive end has ever claimed the honor, either. It’s been all about quarterbacks and sometimes running backs. This makes the award that Lawrence Taylor won as the New York Giants marched to a Super Bowl crown during the 1986 season even more impressive. It was the last time, and only the second case, that a defensive player was so honored.

Yes, there have been exceptions. Rare exceptions. In 1971, Alan Page, ringleader of the “Purple People Eaters” for the Minnesota Vikings, was the only defensive tackle named MVP. And in 1982, Washington’s kicker, Mark Moseley, nailed it.

With that history out of the way, back to the here and now.

It may be time to rename the award the MVQB.

That said, as the NFL rolls into its second half and the playoff races take sharper focus, the MVP race will sort itself out with the quarterbacks leading the charge for an intriguing subplot during the stretch run.

According to BetMGM, the current odds of winning the MVP begin with Patrick Mahomes (+275) scoring a repeat honor, followed by Jalen Hurts (+300), Lamar Jackson (+400) and Tua Tagovailoa (+600).

The highest-rated non-quarterback on the board isn’t Hill. It’s Christian McCaffrey, the San Francisco 49ers running back who, dating to last season, has scored a touchdown in 17 consecutive games to match the NFL record streak of Hall of Famer Lenny Moore.

My pick? At the moment it’s the multi-faceted Jackson, who has quickly found a comfort zone in the Baltimore Ravens offense designed by new coordinator Todd Monken. It has helped that Jackson is supported by a defense that is allowing the fewest points in the league and the No. 1-ranked running game that Jackson puts his stamp on by leading NFL quarterbacks with 426 rushing yards.

In two weeks, perhaps Hurts will be pick. There’s a strong argument with Hurts, playing for weeks on a tender left knee, leading the Eagles (8-1) to the NFL’s best record. If he leads Philadelphia to a victory in the Super Bowl rematch at Kansas City in Week 11, it solidifies the case.

Then again, with a brutal schedule on the horizon, it may be a week-to-week plot.

Mahomes, meanwhile, hasn’t been as efficient or dominant as we’ve seen in the past. Yet he still ranks third in the league in passing yards and fourth in TD passes while playing with an evolving receiving corps. That the reigning MVP is challenged to match the standard that he has demonstrated for several years is, well, a problem that most others can only wish for.

Early in the season, Tagovailoa was the favorite. He is undeniably still in the MVP mix, leading the league in yards, TD passes and efficiency rating. Like the other top candidates, what happens over the stretch run will settle this issue.

So there. All the clarity that sets up a compelling race for MVP honors. In other words, for now your pick is as good as mine.

Gannett may earn revenue from sports betting operators for audience referrals to betting services. Sports betting operators have no influence over nor are any such revenues in any way dependent on or linked to the newsrooms or news coverage. Terms apply, see operator site for Terms and Conditions. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, help is available. Call the National Council on Problem Gambling 24/7 at 1-800-GAMBLER (NJ, OH), 1-800-522-4700 (CO), 1-800-BETS-OFF (IA), 1-800-9-WITH-IT (IN). Must be 21 or older to gamble. Sports betting and gambling are not legal in all locations. Be sure to comply with laws applicable where you reside.